U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Apr ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Cheese – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the 16th Time in the Past 17 Months, Finish up 6.8%
Feb ’18 U.S. cheese export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the 16th time in the past 17 months, finishing up 6.8% to a three year seasonal high for the month of February. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 43.9% YOY, finishing higher for the 13th consecutive month, while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 2.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Feb ’18 YOY gains in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to China, followed by volumes destined to Chile, Japan and Saudi Arabia. Cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and Canada finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual cheese export volumes finished up 20.5% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 8.9% throughout the first five months of the production season.
Dry Whey – Exports Increase 28.7% YOY, Finish at a Record February Seasonal High
Feb ’18 U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 28.7% YOY, finishing higher for the 18th time in the past 20 months. Feb ’18 dry whey export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of February, finishing 37.4% above three year average seasonal figures. Feb ’18 YOY increases in dry whey export volumes were led by product destined to Malaysia, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, the Philippines, China and Japan. The aforementioned countries combined to account for nearly three quarters of the total YOY increase in dry whey exports experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual dry whey export volumes finished up 22.2% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 14.9% throughout the first five months of the production season.
WPC – Exports Increase 0.9% YOY, Finish at a Record February Seasonal High
Feb ’18 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 0.9% YOY, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month. Feb ’18 WPC export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of February, finishing 30.2% above three year average seasonal figures. ’16-’17 annual WPC export volumes finished up 5.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high level for the second consecutive year, while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 12.4% throughout the first five months of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Exports Increase 27.4% YOY, Finish at a Record February Seasonal High
Feb ’18 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 27.4% YOY, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month. Feb ’18 NFDM/SMP export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of February, finishing 57.6% above three year average seasonal figures. U.S. NFDM/SMP prices remained below international averages prices for the 38th consecutive month during Feb ’18, trading at a 20.1% discount to average Oceania and EU-28 prices throughout the month.
Feb ’18 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Vietnam, followed by volumes destined to Indonesia, Peru and Japan. Export volumes destined to Nigeria and Pakistan declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual NFDM/SMP exports finished up 11.8% YOY to a record annual high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 2.3% throughout the first five months of the production season.
U.S. butterfat, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production all finished higher than the previous year during Feb ’18. Feb ’18 NFDM/SMP export volumes finished most significantly higher on a percentage of production basis throughout the month.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were equivalent to 17.2% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Feb ’18 while dairy import volumes were equivalent to 3.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Feb ’18 net dairy trade finished 25.9% higher YOY, increasing for the fourth consecutive month.
Feb ’18 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased 16.2% YOY, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a 16 month high overall. ’16-’17 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded by 8.1% from the four year low experienced during the previous year, despite declining by 5.3% over the final third of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids are up an additional 3.8% throughout the first five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 13.9% YOY, finishing lower for the ninth time in the past ten months. ’16-’17 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 6.8% below the eight year high experienced during the previous year and are down an additional 10.7% throughout the first five months of the ’17-’18 production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP and dry whey continues to outpace that of cheese and butter as dry product import volumes remain minimal. U.S. cheese import volumes offset over 40% of the total export volumes experienced throughout the month while butter import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 35th time in the past 37 months.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes increased 19.8% YOY, finishing higher for the tenth time in the past 11 months. The U.S. remained a net importer of butter for the 35th time in the past 37 months, however.
- U.S. cheese export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 16th time in the past 17 months, finishing up 6.8%, while U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 28.7% YOY, finishing higher for the 18th time in the past 20 months and reaching a record seasonal high for the month of February. U.S. whey protein concentrate and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes also increased to record seasonal highs, finishing up 0.9% YOY and 27.4% YOY, respectively, throughout the month.
- Net dairy trade on a percentage of total U.S. milk-solids production basis finished higher YOY for the fourth consecutive month, increasing by 25.9%. Export volumes on a percentage of milk-solids production basis reached a 16 month high throughout the month.
Cheese – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the 16th Time in the Past 17 Months, Finish up 6.8%
Feb ’18 U.S. cheese export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the 16th time in the past 17 months, finishing up 6.8% to a three year seasonal high for the month of February. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 43.9% YOY, finishing higher for the 13th consecutive month, while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 2.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Feb ’18 YOY gains in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to China, followed by volumes destined to Chile, Japan and Saudi Arabia. Cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and Canada finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual cheese export volumes finished up 20.5% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 8.9% throughout the first five months of the production season.
Dry Whey – Exports Increase 28.7% YOY, Finish at a Record February Seasonal High
Feb ’18 U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 28.7% YOY, finishing higher for the 18th time in the past 20 months. Feb ’18 dry whey export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of February, finishing 37.4% above three year average seasonal figures. Feb ’18 YOY increases in dry whey export volumes were led by product destined to Malaysia, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, the Philippines, China and Japan. The aforementioned countries combined to account for nearly three quarters of the total YOY increase in dry whey exports experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual dry whey export volumes finished up 22.2% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 14.9% throughout the first five months of the production season.
WPC – Exports Increase 0.9% YOY, Finish at a Record February Seasonal High
Feb ’18 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 0.9% YOY, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month. Feb ’18 WPC export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of February, finishing 30.2% above three year average seasonal figures. ’16-’17 annual WPC export volumes finished up 5.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high level for the second consecutive year, while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 12.4% throughout the first five months of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Exports Increase 27.4% YOY, Finish at a Record February Seasonal High
Feb ’18 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 27.4% YOY, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month. Feb ’18 NFDM/SMP export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of February, finishing 57.6% above three year average seasonal figures. U.S. NFDM/SMP prices remained below international averages prices for the 38th consecutive month during Feb ’18, trading at a 20.1% discount to average Oceania and EU-28 prices throughout the month.
Feb ’18 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Vietnam, followed by volumes destined to Indonesia, Peru and Japan. Export volumes destined to Nigeria and Pakistan declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual NFDM/SMP exports finished up 11.8% YOY to a record annual high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 2.3% throughout the first five months of the production season.
U.S. butterfat, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production all finished higher than the previous year during Feb ’18. Feb ’18 NFDM/SMP export volumes finished most significantly higher on a percentage of production basis throughout the month.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were equivalent to 17.2% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Feb ’18 while dairy import volumes were equivalent to 3.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Feb ’18 net dairy trade finished 25.9% higher YOY, increasing for the fourth consecutive month.
Feb ’18 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased 16.2% YOY, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a 16 month high overall. ’16-’17 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded by 8.1% from the four year low experienced during the previous year, despite declining by 5.3% over the final third of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids are up an additional 3.8% throughout the first five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 13.9% YOY, finishing lower for the ninth time in the past ten months. ’16-’17 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 6.8% below the eight year high experienced during the previous year and are down an additional 10.7% throughout the first five months of the ’17-’18 production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP and dry whey continues to outpace that of cheese and butter as dry product import volumes remain minimal. U.S. cheese import volumes offset over 40% of the total export volumes experienced throughout the month while butter import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 35th time in the past 37 months.