U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Mar ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Feb ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased 22.2% MOM and 2.6% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. Butter stocks had finished lower on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months prior to the three most recent YOY increases. Butter stocks finished at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of February, finishing 21.4% above three year average figures.
The MOM seasonal build in butter stocks of 50.3 million pounds, or 22.2%, was greater than the ten year average January – February seasonal build of 32.1 million pounds, or 18.5%. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and January, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year. The most recent seasonal drawdown in butter stocks of 154.8 million pounds, occurring from Jun ’17 – Nov ’17, was larger than the ten year average seasonal drawdown of 140.2 million pounds.
On a days of usage basis, Feb ’18 U.S. butter stocks remained lower YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, however. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, butter stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 10.0% YOY.
Cheese – Stocks Remain at Record High Seasonal Levels, Finish up 7.2% YOY
Feb ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increase 2.8% MOM and 7.2% higher YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of February. The monthly YOY increase in cheese stocks was the 40th experienced in a row while the MOM build was greater than historical average figures. Cheese stocks have increased by an average of 12.2 million pounds, or 1.2%, from January – February over the past ten years compared to the most recent build in stocks of 35.5 million pounds, or 2.8%.
U.S. cheese stocks typically exhibit a smaller degree of MOM and YOY variation than U.S. butter stocks. Cheese stocks do not have as large of a seasonal build as butter stocks, with the five year average seasonal build in cheese stocks representing a 12.7% increase in stocks vs. a 121.1% increase in butter stocks. The reduced seasonality exhibited in U.S. cheese stocks has led to less volatile YOY variation, with cheese stocks having a five year average absolute YOY change of 5.3% compared to 26.3% for U.S. butter stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Feb ’18 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the tenth time in the past 12 months, finishing up 10.6%.
- Feb ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing 2.6% above the previous year. Butter stocks finished at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of February.
- Feb ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 7.2% YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of February. Cheese stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 40 consecutive months through February.
According to USDA, Feb ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased 22.2% MOM and 2.6% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. Butter stocks had finished lower on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months prior to the three most recent YOY increases. Butter stocks finished at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of February, finishing 21.4% above three year average figures.
The MOM seasonal build in butter stocks of 50.3 million pounds, or 22.2%, was greater than the ten year average January – February seasonal build of 32.1 million pounds, or 18.5%. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and January, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year. The most recent seasonal drawdown in butter stocks of 154.8 million pounds, occurring from Jun ’17 – Nov ’17, was larger than the ten year average seasonal drawdown of 140.2 million pounds.
On a days of usage basis, Feb ’18 U.S. butter stocks remained lower YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, however. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, butter stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 10.0% YOY.
Cheese – Stocks Remain at Record High Seasonal Levels, Finish up 7.2% YOY
Feb ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increase 2.8% MOM and 7.2% higher YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of February. The monthly YOY increase in cheese stocks was the 40th experienced in a row while the MOM build was greater than historical average figures. Cheese stocks have increased by an average of 12.2 million pounds, or 1.2%, from January – February over the past ten years compared to the most recent build in stocks of 35.5 million pounds, or 2.8%.
U.S. cheese stocks typically exhibit a smaller degree of MOM and YOY variation than U.S. butter stocks. Cheese stocks do not have as large of a seasonal build as butter stocks, with the five year average seasonal build in cheese stocks representing a 12.7% increase in stocks vs. a 121.1% increase in butter stocks. The reduced seasonality exhibited in U.S. cheese stocks has led to less volatile YOY variation, with cheese stocks having a five year average absolute YOY change of 5.3% compared to 26.3% for U.S. butter stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Feb ’18 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the tenth time in the past 12 months, finishing up 10.6%.