U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Mar ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Butter – Disappearance Increases YOY on Strong Domestic and Export Demand, Finishes up 6.6%
Jan ’18 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months, finishing up 6.6%. Jan ’18 domestic butter demand increased 6.3% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 17.6% higher. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.3%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has increased an additional 1.0% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a 24 year seasonal high for the month of January. The monthly increase in butter stocks was the second experienced in a row. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and January, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 3.3%
Jan ’18 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.3% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Commercial disappearance of cheese has finished higher over five of the past six months through January. American cheese disappearance increased 3.3% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 3.4% higher throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand increased 2.6% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 18.9% higher. Cheese export figures have finished higher on a YOY basis over 16 of the past 17 months through Jan ’18. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 2.6% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 1.6% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%, reaching a three year high. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 2.3% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 disappearance of U.S. cheese outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining slightly from the previous month. The MOM decline in cheese stocks was a contraseasonal move when compared to ten year average figures, however cheese stocks remained at a record high seasonal level for the month of January. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes up 26.1% YOY to an 18 Year Seasonal High
Jan ’18 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 26.1% to an 18 year seasonal high. Domestic dry whey demand increased 23.5% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 29.8% higher. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 17th experienced throughout the past 19 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 1.9% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 17.8% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 disappearance of U.S. dry whey outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the second consecutive month. U.S. dry whey stocks remained at a record high seasonal figure for the month of January, despite declining from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 8.5%
Jan ’18 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 8.5% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. WPC export volumes increased 15.7% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.0% YOY decline in domestic demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.3% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 13.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 0.6% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 U.S. WPC combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the 11th consecutive month. U.S. WPC stocks increased to a new monthly record high figure throughout the month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Lower on Weak Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 9.6% YOY
Jan ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 9.6% YOY, finishing lower for the fourth time in the past six months. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance declined 23.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.9% increase in export volumes. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.5% YOY to a three year low as a 14.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the production season. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has declined an additional 1.0% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 U.S. NFDM/SMP combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the third consecutive month. U.S. NFDM/SMP stocks increased to a new monthly record high figure throughout the month.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 4.0% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
Dec ’17 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.13 billion pounds remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing down 4.0%. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 11.7% YOY, while whole milk sales finished 0.3% lower, declining on a YOY basis for the first time in the past eight months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7%, while ’17-’18 YTD sales are down an additional 2.0% throughout the first quarter of the production season. Annual whole milk sales increased 3.1% throughout the ’16-’17 production season however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8%.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Dec ’17 as total consumption finished down 2.5%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high, however ’17-’18 YTD fat consumption within U.S. fluid milk has declined 0.3% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Overall, domestic commercial disappearance declined most significantly on an absolute basis for NFDM/SMP while increasing most significantly for cheese. Export volumes strengthened most significantly on an absolute basis for dry whey and cheese throughout the month.
- Jan ’18 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products finished 2.3% higher YOY on milk-fat basis and 1.3% higher YOY on a skim-solids basis. Domestic disappearance increased 2.0% YOY on a milk-fat basis but declined 0.1% YOY on skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- Jan ’18 U.S. butter, cheese, dry whey and whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance increased on a YOY basis throughout the month however nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance finished lower as poor domestic consumption offset higher export volumes.
- U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during Dec ’17, declining by 4.0%. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 11.7% YOY throughout the month.
Butter – Disappearance Increases YOY on Strong Domestic and Export Demand, Finishes up 6.6%
Jan ’18 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months, finishing up 6.6%. Jan ’18 domestic butter demand increased 6.3% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 17.6% higher. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.3%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has increased an additional 1.0% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a 24 year seasonal high for the month of January. The monthly increase in butter stocks was the second experienced in a row. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and January, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 3.3%
Jan ’18 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.3% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Commercial disappearance of cheese has finished higher over five of the past six months through January. American cheese disappearance increased 3.3% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 3.4% higher throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand increased 2.6% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 18.9% higher. Cheese export figures have finished higher on a YOY basis over 16 of the past 17 months through Jan ’18. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 2.6% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 1.6% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%, reaching a three year high. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 2.3% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 disappearance of U.S. cheese outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining slightly from the previous month. The MOM decline in cheese stocks was a contraseasonal move when compared to ten year average figures, however cheese stocks remained at a record high seasonal level for the month of January. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes up 26.1% YOY to an 18 Year Seasonal High
Jan ’18 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 26.1% to an 18 year seasonal high. Domestic dry whey demand increased 23.5% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 29.8% higher. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 17th experienced throughout the past 19 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 1.9% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 17.8% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 disappearance of U.S. dry whey outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the second consecutive month. U.S. dry whey stocks remained at a record high seasonal figure for the month of January, despite declining from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 8.5%
Jan ’18 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 8.5% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. WPC export volumes increased 15.7% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.0% YOY decline in domestic demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.3% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 13.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 0.6% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 U.S. WPC combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the 11th consecutive month. U.S. WPC stocks increased to a new monthly record high figure throughout the month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Lower on Weak Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 9.6% YOY
Jan ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 9.6% YOY, finishing lower for the fourth time in the past six months. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance declined 23.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.9% increase in export volumes. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.5% YOY to a three year low as a 14.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the production season. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has declined an additional 1.0% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 U.S. NFDM/SMP combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the third consecutive month. U.S. NFDM/SMP stocks increased to a new monthly record high figure throughout the month.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 4.0% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
Dec ’17 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.13 billion pounds remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing down 4.0%. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 11.7% YOY, while whole milk sales finished 0.3% lower, declining on a YOY basis for the first time in the past eight months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7%, while ’17-’18 YTD sales are down an additional 2.0% throughout the first quarter of the production season. Annual whole milk sales increased 3.1% throughout the ’16-’17 production season however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8%.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Dec ’17 as total consumption finished down 2.5%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high, however ’17-’18 YTD fat consumption within U.S. fluid milk has declined 0.3% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Overall, domestic commercial disappearance declined most significantly on an absolute basis for NFDM/SMP while increasing most significantly for cheese. Export volumes strengthened most significantly on an absolute basis for dry whey and cheese throughout the month.