U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Jan ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’17. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Dec ’17 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined 2.3% MOM but increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 23 months, finishing up 3.2%. Pork stocks finished higher on a YOY basis despite a larger than average seasonal decline in stock volumes. The November – December decline in pork stocks of 11.5 million pounds, or 2.3%, was larger than the ten year average seasonal decline in stocks of 4.8 million pounds, or 0.9%. Dec ’17 pork stocks remained 3.4% below three year average figures for the month of December.
Beef – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the 11th Consecutive Month, Finish Down 13.8%
Dec ’17 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased 0.9% MOM but remained 13.8% lower YOY, finishing at a three year seasonal low for the month of December. Beef stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months through December while the MOM build in beef stocks of 4.4 million pounds, or 0.9%, was smaller than the ten year average November – December seasonal build of 13.6 million pounds, or 3.0%. Dec ’17 beef stocks finished 3.7% below three year average figures for the month of December.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Higher YOY, Finish up 10.2% to a 12 Year December Seasonal High.
Dec ’17 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined 1.2% MOM from the 11 year high experienced during the previous month but remained 10.2% higher on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month. Dec ’17 chicken stocks finished at a 12 year seasonal high for the month of December. The Dec ’17 MOM decline in chicken stocks of 10.5 million pounds, or 1.2%, was larger than the ten year average November – December seasonal decline in stocks of 5.6 million pounds, or 0.7%. Dec ’17 chicken stocks finished 11.8% above three year average figures for the month of December, increasing vs. three year average figures for the 38th consecutive month.
Overall, Dec ’17 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 5.8% below the monthly record high experienced during Jan ’16. Individually, Dec ’17 pork stocks finished at 70% of historical maximum storage levels while beef stocks remained within 15% of historical maximum storage levels and chicken stocks finished within 5% of historical maximum storage levels.
Dec ’17 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 2.8% below the record seasonal high for the month of December experienced during 2015. Pork and beef stocks each finished within 15% of historical seasonal highs while chicken stocks finished within 5% of record high December storage levels.
- Dec ’17 U.S. pork stocks increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 23 months, finishing up 3.2%, however beef stocks declined 13.8% YOY, finishing lower for the 11th consecutive month.
- Dec ’17 U.S. chicken stocks finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, increasing 10.2% to a 12 year seasonal high for the month of December.
- Overall, Dec ’17 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 5.8% below the monthly record high experienced during Jan ’16 and 2.8% below the record seasonal high for the month of December experienced during 2015.
According to USDA, Dec ’17 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined 2.3% MOM but increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 23 months, finishing up 3.2%. Pork stocks finished higher on a YOY basis despite a larger than average seasonal decline in stock volumes. The November – December decline in pork stocks of 11.5 million pounds, or 2.3%, was larger than the ten year average seasonal decline in stocks of 4.8 million pounds, or 0.9%. Dec ’17 pork stocks remained 3.4% below three year average figures for the month of December.
Beef – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the 11th Consecutive Month, Finish Down 13.8%
Dec ’17 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased 0.9% MOM but remained 13.8% lower YOY, finishing at a three year seasonal low for the month of December. Beef stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months through December while the MOM build in beef stocks of 4.4 million pounds, or 0.9%, was smaller than the ten year average November – December seasonal build of 13.6 million pounds, or 3.0%. Dec ’17 beef stocks finished 3.7% below three year average figures for the month of December.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Higher YOY, Finish up 10.2% to a 12 Year December Seasonal High.
Dec ’17 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined 1.2% MOM from the 11 year high experienced during the previous month but remained 10.2% higher on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month. Dec ’17 chicken stocks finished at a 12 year seasonal high for the month of December. The Dec ’17 MOM decline in chicken stocks of 10.5 million pounds, or 1.2%, was larger than the ten year average November – December seasonal decline in stocks of 5.6 million pounds, or 0.7%. Dec ’17 chicken stocks finished 11.8% above three year average figures for the month of December, increasing vs. three year average figures for the 38th consecutive month.
Overall, Dec ’17 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 5.8% below the monthly record high experienced during Jan ’16. Individually, Dec ’17 pork stocks finished at 70% of historical maximum storage levels while beef stocks remained within 15% of historical maximum storage levels and chicken stocks finished within 5% of historical maximum storage levels.
Dec ’17 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 2.8% below the record seasonal high for the month of December experienced during 2015. Pork and beef stocks each finished within 15% of historical seasonal highs while chicken stocks finished within 5% of record high December storage levels.