U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Jan ’18
U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Jan ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’17. Highlights from the updated report include:
Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY on Lower Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 1.9%
Nov ’17 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months, finishing down 1.9%. Nov ’17 domestic butter demand declined 2.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 9.8% increase in export volumes. Despite finishing lower on a YOY basis, total butter disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record for the month of November. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a three year high. Domestic butter disappearance increased 2.3% throughout the production season, reaching the highest figure on record.
Nov ’17 disappearance of U.S. butter outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the sixth consecutive month. Butter stocks typically peak throughout the summer months prior to declining until seasonal lows are reached during the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines YOY on Lower Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 0.3%
Nov ’17 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.3% YOY, finishing lower for just the second time in the past eight months. Commercial disappearance of cheese remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record for the month of November, however. American cheese disappearance declined 3.1% YOY, more than offsetting a 1.4% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance experienced throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand declined 1.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 17.2% increase in export volumes. Cheese export demand has finished higher over 14 consecutive months through November. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 2.6% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 1.6% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%, reaching a three year high.
Nov ’17 disappearance of U.S. cheese outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month. Cheese stocks typically peak throughout the summer months prior to declining until seasonal lows are reached during the months of October and November.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Higher on Strong Export Demand, Finishes up 2.6% YOY
Nov ’17 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 2.6%. Domestic dry whey demand declined 11.6% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 14.7% increase in export demand. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 15th experienced throughout the past 17 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 1.9% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand.
Nov ’17 U.S. dry whey combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Increases YOY on Strong Export Demand, Finishes up 1.4%
Nov ’17 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 1.4% YOY, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. Commercial disappearance of WPC remained at the second lowest seasonal figure experienced throughout the past six years, however. Domestic WPC demand declined 11.0% YOY, however the decline was more than offset by a 7.4% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.3% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 13.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand.
Nov ’17 U.S. WPC combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the ninth consecutive month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains Lower on Weak Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 1.9% YOY
Nov ’17 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 1.9% YOY, finishing lower for the sixth time in the past seven months. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance declined 7.5% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.2% increase in export volumes. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.5% YOY to a three year low as a 14.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the production season.
Nov ’17 U.S. NFDM/SMP combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 1.1% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
Nov ’17 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.13 billion pounds remained lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing down 1.1%. Sales of whole milk increased 3.3% YOY throughout the month however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 10.2%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7% YOY. Annual whole milk sales finished up 3.1% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8% throughout the year.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Nov ’17 as total consumption finished up 0.7%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high.
Overall, widespread weakness in domestic commercial disappearance was experienced throughout the month, coupled with widespread strength in export demand. YOY domestic commercial disappearance declined most significantly on an absolute basis for cheese, followed by NFDM/SMP and butter. Export volumes strengthened most significantly on an absolute basis for cheese, followed by dry whey and WPC throughout the month.
- Nov ’17 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products finished lower YOY on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis, declining by 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively throughout the month. Disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal levels on record on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis, however.
- Nov ’17 butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance declined on a YOY basis throughout the month as lower domestic demand more than offset increasing export volumes. Nov ’17 dry whey and whey protein concentrate disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis, however, as strong export demand offset lower domestic demand.
- U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Nov ’17, declining by 1.1%. Sales of whole milk increased 3.3% YOY throughout the month however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining 10.2%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finishing down 1.7% YOY.
Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY on Lower Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 1.9%
Nov ’17 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months, finishing down 1.9%. Nov ’17 domestic butter demand declined 2.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 9.8% increase in export volumes. Despite finishing lower on a YOY basis, total butter disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record for the month of November. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a three year high. Domestic butter disappearance increased 2.3% throughout the production season, reaching the highest figure on record.
Nov ’17 disappearance of U.S. butter outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the sixth consecutive month. Butter stocks typically peak throughout the summer months prior to declining until seasonal lows are reached during the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines YOY on Lower Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 0.3%
Nov ’17 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.3% YOY, finishing lower for just the second time in the past eight months. Commercial disappearance of cheese remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record for the month of November, however. American cheese disappearance declined 3.1% YOY, more than offsetting a 1.4% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance experienced throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand declined 1.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 17.2% increase in export volumes. Cheese export demand has finished higher over 14 consecutive months through November. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 2.6% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 1.6% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%, reaching a three year high.
Nov ’17 disappearance of U.S. cheese outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month. Cheese stocks typically peak throughout the summer months prior to declining until seasonal lows are reached during the months of October and November.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Higher on Strong Export Demand, Finishes up 2.6% YOY
Nov ’17 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 2.6%. Domestic dry whey demand declined 11.6% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 14.7% increase in export demand. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 15th experienced throughout the past 17 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 1.9% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand.
Nov ’17 U.S. dry whey combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Increases YOY on Strong Export Demand, Finishes up 1.4%
Nov ’17 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 1.4% YOY, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. Commercial disappearance of WPC remained at the second lowest seasonal figure experienced throughout the past six years, however. Domestic WPC demand declined 11.0% YOY, however the decline was more than offset by a 7.4% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.3% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 13.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand.
Nov ’17 U.S. WPC combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the ninth consecutive month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains Lower on Weak Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 1.9% YOY
Nov ’17 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 1.9% YOY, finishing lower for the sixth time in the past seven months. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance declined 7.5% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.2% increase in export volumes. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.5% YOY to a three year low as a 14.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the production season.
Nov ’17 U.S. NFDM/SMP combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 1.1% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
Nov ’17 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.13 billion pounds remained lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing down 1.1%. Sales of whole milk increased 3.3% YOY throughout the month however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 10.2%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7% YOY. Annual whole milk sales finished up 3.1% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8% throughout the year.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Nov ’17 as total consumption finished up 0.7%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high.
Overall, widespread weakness in domestic commercial disappearance was experienced throughout the month, coupled with widespread strength in export demand. YOY domestic commercial disappearance declined most significantly on an absolute basis for cheese, followed by NFDM/SMP and butter. Export volumes strengthened most significantly on an absolute basis for cheese, followed by dry whey and WPC throughout the month.