U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Nov ’16
U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Nov ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Oct ’16 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 598.0 million pounds declined 6.9% MOM while also remaining lower on a YOY basis, finishing down 0.9%. Pork stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months through October, however the most recent YOY decline in stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the period. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 44.3 million pounds, or 6.9%, was twice as large as the five year average September – October seasonal decline in stocks of 20.6 million pounds, or 3.3%, contributing to the relatively small YOY decline.
Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Oct ’16 pork stocks finished 5.4% above three year average figures for the month of October, finishing at the third highest October figure on record.
Beef – Stocks Reach a New Record Monthly High, Finish up 4.6% YOY
Oct ’16 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 532.3 million pounds increased 2.6% MOM and 4.6% YOY, finishing at a new monthly record high. Beef stocks have increased on a YOY basis over four consecutive months through October. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 13.3 million pounds, or 2.6%, was significantly greater than the five year average September – October seasonal increase in stocks of just 0.7 million pounds, or 0.1%. Oct ’16 beef stocks finished 20.1% higher than three year average figures for the month of October and 1.4% higher than the previous monthly record high experienced during Oct ’02.
Chicken – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the Third Consecutive Month, Finish Down 9.9%
Oct ’16 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 774.0 million pounds increased 0.6% MOM but remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 9.9%. U.S. chicken stocks had increased on a YOY basis over 20 consecutive months prior to the three most recent YOY declines. In addition to remaining lower on a YOY basis, the MOM increase in chicken stocks of 4.9 million pounds, or 0.6%, was significantly smaller than the five year average September – October seasonal increase in stocks of 32.7 million pounds, or 4.7%. Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Oct ’16 chicken stocks finished 3.7% above three year average figures for the month of October.
Overall, Oct ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 3.4% below the monthly record high experienced during October of the previous year. Individually, Oct ’16 beef stocks reached a new record high maximum storage level while pork and chicken stocks finished within 15% and 20% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Pork stocks finished within one percent of historical maximum seasonal storage levels for the month of October while chicken stocks finished 10% below record seasonal storage levels.
- U.S. pork stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month during Oct ’16 while chicken stocks declined on a YOY basis for only the third time in the past 23 months.
- U.S. beef stocks finished higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Oct ’16, increasing to a new monthly record high.
- Oct ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken finished 3.4% below the record high experienced during October of the previous year, despite beef stocks reaching an all-time record high.
According to USDA, Oct ’16 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 598.0 million pounds declined 6.9% MOM while also remaining lower on a YOY basis, finishing down 0.9%. Pork stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months through October, however the most recent YOY decline in stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the period. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 44.3 million pounds, or 6.9%, was twice as large as the five year average September – October seasonal decline in stocks of 20.6 million pounds, or 3.3%, contributing to the relatively small YOY decline.
Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Oct ’16 pork stocks finished 5.4% above three year average figures for the month of October, finishing at the third highest October figure on record.
Beef – Stocks Reach a New Record Monthly High, Finish up 4.6% YOY
Oct ’16 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 532.3 million pounds increased 2.6% MOM and 4.6% YOY, finishing at a new monthly record high. Beef stocks have increased on a YOY basis over four consecutive months through October. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 13.3 million pounds, or 2.6%, was significantly greater than the five year average September – October seasonal increase in stocks of just 0.7 million pounds, or 0.1%. Oct ’16 beef stocks finished 20.1% higher than three year average figures for the month of October and 1.4% higher than the previous monthly record high experienced during Oct ’02.
Chicken – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the Third Consecutive Month, Finish Down 9.9%
Oct ’16 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 774.0 million pounds increased 0.6% MOM but remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 9.9%. U.S. chicken stocks had increased on a YOY basis over 20 consecutive months prior to the three most recent YOY declines. In addition to remaining lower on a YOY basis, the MOM increase in chicken stocks of 4.9 million pounds, or 0.6%, was significantly smaller than the five year average September – October seasonal increase in stocks of 32.7 million pounds, or 4.7%. Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Oct ’16 chicken stocks finished 3.7% above three year average figures for the month of October.
Overall, Oct ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 3.4% below the monthly record high experienced during October of the previous year. Individually, Oct ’16 beef stocks reached a new record high maximum storage level while pork and chicken stocks finished within 15% and 20% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Pork stocks finished within one percent of historical maximum seasonal storage levels for the month of October while chicken stocks finished 10% below record seasonal storage levels.