August ’16 USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates
*Significant changes are highlighted
’15/’16 Corn
• Exports were revised higher by 25 million offsetting a 25 million bushel decline in ethanol usage.
• Ending stocks came in at 1.706 billion which was in line with expectations.
’16/’17 Corn
• Production was revised 613 million bushels higher based on a forecasted record yield of 175.1 bushels per acre that was well above expectations.
• Exports were projected 125 million higher on a very robust early season sales pace.
• Feed and residual usage increase 175 million as a larger crop is expected to increase the residual.
• Ending stocks at 2.409 billion bushels or 60.6 days of use was above private estimates and highest in almost 30 years.
’15/’16 Soybeans
• Exports were increased 85 million and crush by 10 million leaving demand much higher than expected.
• Ending stocks came in well below expectations at 255 million bushels or 24 days of use.
’16/’17 Soybeans
• Production was revised 180 million bushels higher based on record yields above expectations.
• Higher production offset lower beginning stocks and higher crush and exports by 15 and 30 million bu.
• Ending stocks at 330 million bushels or 30.0 days of use was in line with private estimates.
’15/’16 Wheat
• No significant changes.
’16/’17 Wheat
• Production was slightly higher on increasing yields offsetting greater feed and export usage.
• Ending stocks at 1,100 million bushels was slightly below trade estimates.
World Estimates
• World coarse grain production is forecasted to rebound back to record highs in 16/17 after the Brazil drought driven declines in the current production season leaving world ending stocks sharply higher.
• Wheat production increases in Russia and Ukraine offset lower EU output leaving world production up.
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August ’16 USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates