June ’14 USDA Planted Acreage Report
- Corn – Neutral on Acreage / Bearish on Stocks
- The acreage projection of 91.6 million acres planted was near the 91.7 million acres average estimate and but well below the 95.4 million planted last year.
- The focus will turn predominately to weather and demand going forward. Crop conditions are on average very good for most of the corn-belt. Solid soil moisture and a very good weather forecast point towards positive crop development but July temperatures and precipitation remain crucial during pollution for final yields.
- The projected ending stocks are expected to be around 1.7 billion bushels in the July World Agriculture Supply and Demand report with potential to grow if weather and the yield outlook remain excellent. A yield over 170 bushels per acre would likely project a 2 billion plus carryout.
- Soybeans – Bearish
- The acreage projection of 84.8 million acres planted was way above the 82.3 million acre average estimate and 76.5 million planted last year.
- Record planting in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and a few other less notable states propelled acres higher but may also drag on final yield despite good weather because land in these states tends to be less optimal than core growing states like Illinois and Iowa.
- The balance sheet for 14/15 is expected to loosen significantly with improved US production prospects and projected burdensome world supplies limiting export growth.
- Wheat – Neutral
- The acreage projection of 56.5 million acres planted was slightly above the 55.8 million acres average estimate and the 56.2 million planted last year.
- The domestic ending stocks are adequate at 585 million bushels with large world output and cheap feed grain alternatives such as corn.