U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Mar ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Despite export volumes remaining higher on a YOY basis, total U.S. butterfat import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 34th time in the past 36 months during Jan ’18. The U.S. has remained a net importer of butter despite domestic butter prices trading below international average prices over ten consecutive months through Jan ’18. Global butter prices have approached parity over recent months, however, as EU-28 prices have declined from the record high levels experienced during Sep ’17.
Cheese – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the 15th Time in the Past 16 Months, Finish up 18.9%
Jan ’18 U.S. cheese export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months, finishing up 18.9% to a four year seasonal high for the month of January. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 19.0% YOY, finishing higher for the 12th consecutive month, while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 18.8% higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Jan ’18 YOY gains in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Japan, Saudi Arabia and South Korea. YOY gains in cheese export volumes destined to Mexico accounted for over three quarters of the total YOY increase in cheese exports experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual cheese export volumes finished up 20.5% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 9.5% throughout the first third of the production season.
Dry Whey – Exports Increase YOY for the 17th Time in the Past 19 Months, Finish up 29.8%
Jan ’18 U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 29.8% YOY, finishing higher for the 17th time in the past 19 months. Overall, dry whey export volumes finished at a six year seasonal high for the month of January. Jan ’18 YOY increases in dry whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, followed by volumes destined to Japan and Singapore. The aforementioned countries combined to account for over three quarters of the total YOY increase in dry whey exports experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual dry whey export volumes finished up 22.2% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 6.9% throughout the first third of the production season.
WPC – Exports Increase 15.7% YOY, Finish at a Record January Seasonal High
Jan ’18 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 15.7 % YOY, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month. Jan ’18 WPC export volumes increased to a record seasonal high for the month of January, finishing 63.4% above three year average figures. ’16-’17 annual WPC export volumes finished up 5.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high level for the second consecutive year, while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 15.3% throughout the first third of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Exports Increase 3.9% YOY, Finish at a Record January Seasonal High
Jan ’18 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 3.9% YOY, finishing higher for the third consecutive month. Overall, Jan ’18 U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes reached a record high seasonal level for the month of January, finishing 19.3% above three year average figures. U.S. NFDM/SMP prices remained below international averages prices for the 37th consecutive month during Jan ’18, trading at a 13.6% discount to average Oceania and EU-28 prices throughout the month.
Jan ’18 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Peru and Columbia. Export volumes destined to the Philippines, China, Chile and Thailand declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual NFDM/SMP exports finished up 11.8% YOY to a record annual high however ’17-’18 YTD figures have declined 4.1% throughout the first third of the production season, despite the recently experienced gains.
U.S. butterfat, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production all finished higher than the previous year during Jan ’18. Jan ’18 dry whey export volumes finished most significantly higher on a percentage of production basis throughout the month.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 13.9% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Jan ’18, while dairy import volumes were equivalent to approximately 3.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Jan ’18 net dairy trade finished 12.8% higher YOY, increasing for the third consecutive month.
Jan ’18 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased 5.4% YOY, finishing higher for the third consecutive month. ’16-’17 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded by 6.9% from the four year low experienced during the previous year, despite declining by 5.3% over the final third of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids are up an additional 4.1% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 14.2%, finishing lower for the eighth time in the past nine months. ’16-’17 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 6.8% below the eight year high experienced during the previous year and are down an additional 10.0% throughout the first third of the ’17-’18 production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP and dry whey continues to outpace that of cheese and butter as dry product import volumes remain minimal. U.S. cheese import volumes offset nearly half of the total export volumes experienced throughout the month while butter import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 34th time in the past 36 months.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes increased 24.6% YOY, finishing higher for the ninth time in the past ten months. The U.S. remained a net importer of butter for the 34th time in the past 36 months, however.
- U.S. cheese export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months, finishing up 18.9%, while U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 29.8% YOY, finishing higher for the 17th time in the past 19 months. U.S. whey protein concentrate and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes each increased to record seasonal highs, finishing up 15.7% YOY and 3.9% YOY, respectively, throughout the month.
- Net dairy trade on a percentage of total U.S. milk-solids production basis finished higher YOY for the third consecutive month, increasing by 12.8%. Higher export volumes were coupled with reduced import volumes on a percentage of milk-solids production basis experienced throughout the month.
Despite export volumes remaining higher on a YOY basis, total U.S. butterfat import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 34th time in the past 36 months during Jan ’18. The U.S. has remained a net importer of butter despite domestic butter prices trading below international average prices over ten consecutive months through Jan ’18. Global butter prices have approached parity over recent months, however, as EU-28 prices have declined from the record high levels experienced during Sep ’17.
Cheese – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the 15th Time in the Past 16 Months, Finish up 18.9%
Jan ’18 U.S. cheese export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months, finishing up 18.9% to a four year seasonal high for the month of January. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 19.0% YOY, finishing higher for the 12th consecutive month, while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 18.8% higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Jan ’18 YOY gains in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Japan, Saudi Arabia and South Korea. YOY gains in cheese export volumes destined to Mexico accounted for over three quarters of the total YOY increase in cheese exports experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual cheese export volumes finished up 20.5% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 9.5% throughout the first third of the production season.
Dry Whey – Exports Increase YOY for the 17th Time in the Past 19 Months, Finish up 29.8%
Jan ’18 U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 29.8% YOY, finishing higher for the 17th time in the past 19 months. Overall, dry whey export volumes finished at a six year seasonal high for the month of January. Jan ’18 YOY increases in dry whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, followed by volumes destined to Japan and Singapore. The aforementioned countries combined to account for over three quarters of the total YOY increase in dry whey exports experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual dry whey export volumes finished up 22.2% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 6.9% throughout the first third of the production season.
WPC – Exports Increase 15.7% YOY, Finish at a Record January Seasonal High
Jan ’18 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 15.7 % YOY, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month. Jan ’18 WPC export volumes increased to a record seasonal high for the month of January, finishing 63.4% above three year average figures. ’16-’17 annual WPC export volumes finished up 5.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high level for the second consecutive year, while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 15.3% throughout the first third of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Exports Increase 3.9% YOY, Finish at a Record January Seasonal High
Jan ’18 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 3.9% YOY, finishing higher for the third consecutive month. Overall, Jan ’18 U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes reached a record high seasonal level for the month of January, finishing 19.3% above three year average figures. U.S. NFDM/SMP prices remained below international averages prices for the 37th consecutive month during Jan ’18, trading at a 13.6% discount to average Oceania and EU-28 prices throughout the month.
Jan ’18 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Peru and Columbia. Export volumes destined to the Philippines, China, Chile and Thailand declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual NFDM/SMP exports finished up 11.8% YOY to a record annual high however ’17-’18 YTD figures have declined 4.1% throughout the first third of the production season, despite the recently experienced gains.
U.S. butterfat, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production all finished higher than the previous year during Jan ’18. Jan ’18 dry whey export volumes finished most significantly higher on a percentage of production basis throughout the month.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 13.9% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Jan ’18, while dairy import volumes were equivalent to approximately 3.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Jan ’18 net dairy trade finished 12.8% higher YOY, increasing for the third consecutive month.
Jan ’18 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased 5.4% YOY, finishing higher for the third consecutive month. ’16-’17 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded by 6.9% from the four year low experienced during the previous year, despite declining by 5.3% over the final third of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids are up an additional 4.1% throughout the first third of the production season.
Jan ’18 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 14.2%, finishing lower for the eighth time in the past nine months. ’16-’17 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 6.8% below the eight year high experienced during the previous year and are down an additional 10.0% throughout the first third of the ’17-’18 production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP and dry whey continues to outpace that of cheese and butter as dry product import volumes remain minimal. U.S. cheese import volumes offset nearly half of the total export volumes experienced throughout the month while butter import volumes exceeded export volumes for the 34th time in the past 36 months.