Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Oct ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production finished 2.6% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a three year low seasonal level.
• U.S. pork production declined 4.8% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a three year low seasonal level. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 3.8% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21 while average weights per head finished 1.0% lower YOY.
• U.S. beef production declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, finishing below previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Average weights per head declined 0.6% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, more than offsetting a 0.8% YOY increase in the total number of cattle slaughtered.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Reaches a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 2.6% YOY

According to the USDA, Oct ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production rebounded to a nine month high level when normalizing for slaughter days but remained 2.6% below previous year levels, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the fifth experienced in a row. The month-over-month increase in total red meat production of 6.0% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of less than 0.1%.

’19-’20 annual red meat production finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 annual red meat production increased by an additional 0.2% on a YOY basis, despite the recently experienced declines.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 50^th consecutive month throughout Oct ’21. The most recent deviation from trendline was the smallest experienced throughout the past 26 months, however.

Pork – Production Reaches a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 4.8% YOY

Oct ’21 U.S. pork production increased seasonally to a seven month high level when normalizing for slaughter days but remained 4.8% below previous year levels, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork production was the fifth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced over the five month period. The Oct ’21 total number of hogs slaughtered declined 3.8% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 1.0% below previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual pork production finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the sixth consecutive year. ’20-’21 annual pork production declined by 1.5% on a YOY basis, however.

Beef – Production Remains Lower YOY for the Fourth Consecutive Month, Down 0.3%

Oct ’21 U.S. beef production increased contraseasonally from the previous month when normalizing for slaughter days but remained 0.3% below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout the previous year. Despite declining on a YOY basis, beef production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY decline in beef production was the fourth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced over the four month period. Average weights per head declined 0.6% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, more than offsetting a 0.8% YOY increase in the total number of cattle slaughtered.

’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis from the 16 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 annual beef production rebounded by 2.2% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a record high annual level, despite the recently experienced declines.