EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Feb ’20
According to the EIA’s February Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to increase through March. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below.
Feb ’20 production levels were revised 43,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.5%, below levels previously forecasted but finished 11,000 bpd, or 0.1%, above Jan ’20 production levels. Mar ’20 production levels are expected to increase an additional 17,000 bpd, or 0.2%, from the Feb ’20 revised production levels to 9.17 million bpd, finishing at the highest figure on record. Mar ’20 production forecasts are expected to finish higher on a YOY basis for the 37th consecutive month, up 12.0% from the previous year levels.
The Mar ’20 projected MOM increase in oil production would be the 36th experienced throughout the past 39 months, however oil production growth has decelerated over the past several months.
Oil production is expected to remain particularly strong within the Permian region, increasing by 0.8% on a MOM basis and more than offsetting a 0.5% MOM decline in expected oil production throughout the six other key regions.
U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells continued to decline from the May ’19 record highs, however, finishing lower for the eighth consecutive month. DUC wells, which have been drilled by producers but have not yet been made ready for production, have been compiled since Dec ’13. The Jan ’20 DUC wells figure of 7,682 finished 0.4% below the previous month, reaching a 14 month low level. The decline in DUC wells was the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months, however.
Anadarko DUC wells declined most significantly from the previous month, offsetting a slightly MOM increase in combined DUC wells experienced throughout the other production regions.
Feb ’20 production levels were revised 43,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.5%, below levels previously forecasted but finished 11,000 bpd, or 0.1%, above Jan ’20 production levels. Mar ’20 production levels are expected to increase an additional 17,000 bpd, or 0.2%, from the Feb ’20 revised production levels to 9.17 million bpd, finishing at the highest figure on record. Mar ’20 production forecasts are expected to finish higher on a YOY basis for the 37th consecutive month, up 12.0% from the previous year levels.
The Mar ’20 projected MOM increase in oil production would be the 36th experienced throughout the past 39 months, however oil production growth has decelerated over the past several months.
Oil production is expected to remain particularly strong within the Permian region, increasing by 0.8% on a MOM basis and more than offsetting a 0.5% MOM decline in expected oil production throughout the six other key regions.
U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells continued to decline from the May ’19 record highs, however, finishing lower for the eighth consecutive month. DUC wells, which have been drilled by producers but have not yet been made ready for production, have been compiled since Dec ’13. The Jan ’20 DUC wells figure of 7,682 finished 0.4% below the previous month, reaching a 14 month low level. The decline in DUC wells was the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months, however.
Anadarko DUC wells declined most significantly from the previous month, offsetting a slightly MOM increase in combined DUC wells experienced throughout the other production regions.