U.S. Dairy Exports Update – May ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Canada and Mexico were the top destinations for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Mar ’20, combining to account for over half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Mexico declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to Saudi Arabia and Columbia, while butterfat export volumes destined to the United Arab Emirates finished most significantly higher.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 31.4% and 73.7%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 41.6% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Decline YOY for the Third Time in Four Months, Finish Down 10.3%
U.S. cheese export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Mar ’20, finishing down 10.3%. Cheese export volumes reached a record high monthly level throughout March of last year. Other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes declined 6.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while cheddar cheese export volumes finished 30.8% lower YOY. The YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes was the fourth experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have declined by 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Mar ’20, accounting for over a quarter of the total export volumes. Mexico, South Korea and Japan combined to account for over half of the total Mar ’20 U.S. cheese exports volumes.
YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have declined 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey Volumes Remain Higher YOY, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Finish Lower
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Mar ’20, finishing up 8.8%. Dry whey export volumes remained 6.0% below three year average seasonal figures for the month of March, however. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the two most recently experienced YOY increases.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have declined by an additional 8.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the recent gains.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes declined 2.9% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past six months and reaching a four year seasonal low level. WPC export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 11 of 12 months prior to increasing throughout the past five of the past six months.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 25.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however, despite the recent decline.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Mar ’20, accounting for over a quarter of the total export volumes. China, Canada, Mexico and New Zealand combined to account for over half of the total Mar ’20 U.S. whey exports volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to the Philippines and Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have declined 36.0% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 3.8% YOY increase in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. China applied a 25% retaliatory tariff to a wide variety of U.S. dairy products including whey during early Jul ’18 while Chinese whey demand has also been reduced on weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the Sixth Time in Seven Months, Finish up 3.6%
U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished higher on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months during Mar ’20, increasing by 3.6%. NFDM/SMP export volumes reached the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of March.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 20.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Mar ’20, accounting for a third of the total export volumes. Mexico and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total Mar ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Indonesia, followed by volumes destined to Malaysia, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 9.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 17.5% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Mar ’20 however butterfat and cheese export volumes as a percentage of production remained lower on a YOY basis.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 15.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Mar ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.3% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Mar ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 3.0% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the five most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Mar ’20, finishing up 0.7%. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 8.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 6.9% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’20, finishing at an 18 month low level, overall. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, while ’19-’20 YTD figures have finished flat on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the third consecutive month during Mar ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 23rd consecutive month.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the 13th consecutive month during Mar ’20, finishing down 24.4% and reaching a three year seasonal low level, while U.S. cheese export volumes declined 10.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months.
- U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 8.8% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month, however whey protein concentrate export volumes declined 2.9% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past six months. U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing up 3.6% and reaching the second highest seasonal level on record.
- Net dairy trade on a percentage of total U.S. milk-solids production basis increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Mar ’20, finishing up 3.0%.
Canada and Mexico were the top destinations for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Mar ’20, combining to account for over half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Mexico declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to Saudi Arabia and Columbia, while butterfat export volumes destined to the United Arab Emirates finished most significantly higher.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 31.4% and 73.7%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 41.6% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Decline YOY for the Third Time in Four Months, Finish Down 10.3%
U.S. cheese export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Mar ’20, finishing down 10.3%. Cheese export volumes reached a record high monthly level throughout March of last year. Other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes declined 6.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while cheddar cheese export volumes finished 30.8% lower YOY. The YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes was the fourth experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have declined by 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Mar ’20, accounting for over a quarter of the total export volumes. Mexico, South Korea and Japan combined to account for over half of the total Mar ’20 U.S. cheese exports volumes.
YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have declined 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey Volumes Remain Higher YOY, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Finish Lower
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Mar ’20, finishing up 8.8%. Dry whey export volumes remained 6.0% below three year average seasonal figures for the month of March, however. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the two most recently experienced YOY increases.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have declined by an additional 8.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the recent gains.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes declined 2.9% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past six months and reaching a four year seasonal low level. WPC export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 11 of 12 months prior to increasing throughout the past five of the past six months.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 25.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however, despite the recent decline.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Mar ’20, accounting for over a quarter of the total export volumes. China, Canada, Mexico and New Zealand combined to account for over half of the total Mar ’20 U.S. whey exports volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to the Philippines and Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have declined 36.0% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 3.8% YOY increase in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. China applied a 25% retaliatory tariff to a wide variety of U.S. dairy products including whey during early Jul ’18 while Chinese whey demand has also been reduced on weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the Sixth Time in Seven Months, Finish up 3.6%
U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished higher on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months during Mar ’20, increasing by 3.6%. NFDM/SMP export volumes reached the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of March.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 20.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Mar ’20, accounting for a third of the total export volumes. Mexico and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total Mar ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Indonesia, followed by volumes destined to Malaysia, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 9.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 17.5% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Mar ’20 however butterfat and cheese export volumes as a percentage of production remained lower on a YOY basis.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 15.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Mar ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.3% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Mar ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 3.0% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the five most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Mar ’20, finishing up 0.7%. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 8.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 6.9% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’20, finishing at an 18 month low level, overall. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, while ’19-’20 YTD figures have finished flat on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the third consecutive month during Mar ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 23rd consecutive month.