U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Feb ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 9.3% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by Australia, while shipments destined to Mexico, South Korea and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 20th consecutive month during Dec ’19, finishing down 12.9%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 37.1% YOY during Dec ’19, reaching a record high level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the eighth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven and a half years on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year. ’19-’20 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 23.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY However Net Trade Finishes Positive
Dec ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month, finishing down 2.3% YOY. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past 12 months. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by shipments destined to Mexico, while export volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Dec ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 7.6%. Beef & veal export volumes continued to exceed import volumes for the sixth time in the past seven months during Dec ’19, however, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade remaining at a positive level. Despite remaining positive, Dec ’19 beef & veal net trade finished at a four year seasonal low level for the month of December.
’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels. ’19-’20 YTD net beef & veal trade has declined an additional 73.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Reaches a Three Year Seasonal High Level, Finishes up 0.6% YOY
Dec ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 0.8% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month and reaching a three year seasonal high level. YOY increases in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Vietnam, followed by shipments destined to the Philippines and Mexico, while export volumes destined to Cuba declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Georgia have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, while shipments destined to Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Dec ’19, finishing up 10.3% and reaching a four year seasonal high level. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Dec ’19 imports amounted to just 2.1% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY increase in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 0.6% higher on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, reaching a three year high seasonal level.
’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite the declines experienced throughout the final months of the production season. ’19-’20 YTD net broiler trade has increased an additional 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months during Dec ’19, finishing up 142.0 million pounds, or 13.8%. The YOY increase in combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers was the largest experienced throughout the past five months.
- Dec ’19 U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing up 37.1% to a record high level. Pork export volumes increased 29.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, driven higher by growth in volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan.
- Dec ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month, finishing down 2.3%. Net beef & veal trade remained at a positive level for the sixth time in the past seven months but finished at a four year seasonal low level.
- Dec ’19 U.S. net broiler trade reached a three year seasonal high level, finishing 0.6% higher on a YOY basis.
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 9.3% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by Australia, while shipments destined to Mexico, South Korea and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 20th consecutive month during Dec ’19, finishing down 12.9%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 37.1% YOY during Dec ’19, reaching a record high level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the eighth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven and a half years on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year. ’19-’20 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 23.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY However Net Trade Finishes Positive
Dec ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month, finishing down 2.3% YOY. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past 12 months. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by shipments destined to Mexico, while export volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Dec ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 7.6%. Beef & veal export volumes continued to exceed import volumes for the sixth time in the past seven months during Dec ’19, however, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade remaining at a positive level. Despite remaining positive, Dec ’19 beef & veal net trade finished at a four year seasonal low level for the month of December.
’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels. ’19-’20 YTD net beef & veal trade has declined an additional 73.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Reaches a Three Year Seasonal High Level, Finishes up 0.6% YOY
Dec ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 0.8% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month and reaching a three year seasonal high level. YOY increases in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Vietnam, followed by shipments destined to the Philippines and Mexico, while export volumes destined to Cuba declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Georgia have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, while shipments destined to Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Dec ’19, finishing up 10.3% and reaching a four year seasonal high level. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Dec ’19 imports amounted to just 2.1% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY increase in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 0.6% higher on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, reaching a three year high seasonal level.
’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite the declines experienced throughout the final months of the production season. ’19-’20 YTD net broiler trade has increased an additional 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months during Dec ’19, finishing up 142.0 million pounds, or 13.8%. The YOY increase in combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers was the largest experienced throughout the past five months.