U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Sep ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Aug ’19 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined contraseasonally to a seven month low level but remained 4.2% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal high. Pork stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over four consecutive months through August. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 5.7 million pounds, or 0.9%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal build in stocks of 10.9 million pounds, or 1.9%.
Beef – Stocks Increase to a Six Month High Level but Remain Down 6.4% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. frozen beef stocks continued to rebound from the four and a half year low level experienced throughout Jun ’19 but remained lower on a YOY basis, declining by 6.4%. The Aug ’19 YOY decline in beef stocks was the sixth experienced in a row however the MOM increase in beef stocks of 17.5 million pounds, or 3.9%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 1.6 million pounds, or 0.4%. Beef stocks reached a six month high level, overall.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the Eighth Time in Nine Months, Finish Down 3.1%
Aug ’19 U.S. frozen chicken stocks increased 5.6% MOM to a nine month high but remained lower on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past nine months, finishing down 3.1%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, chicken stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 47.4 million pounds, or 5.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 5.5 million pounds, or 0.7%.
Overall, Aug ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 4.0% below the Sep ’18 record high level. Individually, Aug ’19 chicken and pork stocks finished within seven percent and 14% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished 18% below the highest monthly storage level on record.
Aug ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 1.8% below the record high August seasonal level experienced throughout 2018. Individually, Aug ’19 chicken and beef stocks finished within four percent and seven percent of the record high August storage levels, respectively, while pork stocks finished eight percent below record high historical seasonal levels.
- Aug ’19 U.S. pork stocks declined contraseasonally to a seven month low level but remained 4.2% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal high.
- Aug ’19 U.S. beef stocks increased contraseasonally to a six month high level but remained 6.4% lower on a YOY basis, declining YOY for the sixth consecutive month.
- Aug ’19 U.S. chicken stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past nine months, finishing down 3.1% but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record.
According to USDA, Aug ’19 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined contraseasonally to a seven month low level but remained 4.2% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal high. Pork stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over four consecutive months through August. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 5.7 million pounds, or 0.9%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal build in stocks of 10.9 million pounds, or 1.9%.
Beef – Stocks Increase to a Six Month High Level but Remain Down 6.4% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. frozen beef stocks continued to rebound from the four and a half year low level experienced throughout Jun ’19 but remained lower on a YOY basis, declining by 6.4%. The Aug ’19 YOY decline in beef stocks was the sixth experienced in a row however the MOM increase in beef stocks of 17.5 million pounds, or 3.9%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 1.6 million pounds, or 0.4%. Beef stocks reached a six month high level, overall.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the Eighth Time in Nine Months, Finish Down 3.1%
Aug ’19 U.S. frozen chicken stocks increased 5.6% MOM to a nine month high but remained lower on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past nine months, finishing down 3.1%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, chicken stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 47.4 million pounds, or 5.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 5.5 million pounds, or 0.7%.
Overall, Aug ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 4.0% below the Sep ’18 record high level. Individually, Aug ’19 chicken and pork stocks finished within seven percent and 14% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished 18% below the highest monthly storage level on record.
Aug ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 1.8% below the record high August seasonal level experienced throughout 2018. Individually, Aug ’19 chicken and beef stocks finished within four percent and seven percent of the record high August storage levels, respectively, while pork stocks finished eight percent below record high historical seasonal levels.