U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Jul ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Jun ’19 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally from the 12 month high experienced throughout the previous month but remained 10.8% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a four year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in pork stocks was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months on a percentage basis. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 6.6 million pounds, or 1.0%, was significantly smaller than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 41.0 million pounds, or 6.9%. The May – June seasonal decline in pork stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past 24 years.
Beef – Stocks Decline Seasonally to a Four and a Half Year Low, Finish Down 12.1% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. frozen beef stocks declined seasonally to a four and a half year low level, finishing 12.1% lower on a YOY basis. The Jun ’19 YOY decline in beef stocks was the fourth experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past 18 months on a percentage basis, trailing only the May ’19 decline. Overall, beef stocks reached a five year seasonal low level for the month of June. The MOM decline in beef stocks of 10.6 million pounds, or 2.6%, was greater than the ten year average May – Jun seasonal decline in stocks of 4.6 million pounds, or 0.9%.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the Sixth Time in Seven Months, Finish Down 5.8%
Jun ’19 U.S. frozen chicken stocks rebounded 0.2% from the 20 month low experienced throughout the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing down 5.8%. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 1.9 million pounds, or 0.2%, was a slight contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 2.3 million pounds, or 0.4%.
Overall, Jun ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 9.8% below the Sep ’18 record high levels. Individually, Jun ’19 pork and chicken stocks finished within 12% and 13% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished 31% below the highest monthly storage level on record.
Jun ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 2.4% below the record high June seasonal level experienced throughout 2018. Individually, Jun ’19 pork and chicken stocks finished within two percent and six percent of the record high June storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished 18% below record high historical seasonal levels.
- Jun ’19 U.S. pork stocks declined seasonally from the 12 month high experienced throughout the previous month but remained 10.8% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a four year seasonal high level. The May – June seasonal decline in pork stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past 24 years.
- Jun ’19 U.S. beef stocks declined seasonally to a four and a half year low level, finishing down 12.1% YOY. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the fourth experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past 18 months on a percentage basis.
- Jun ’19 U.S. chicken stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing down 5.8%.
According to USDA, Jun ’19 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally from the 12 month high experienced throughout the previous month but remained 10.8% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a four year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in pork stocks was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months on a percentage basis. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 6.6 million pounds, or 1.0%, was significantly smaller than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 41.0 million pounds, or 6.9%. The May – June seasonal decline in pork stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past 24 years.
Beef – Stocks Decline Seasonally to a Four and a Half Year Low, Finish Down 12.1% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. frozen beef stocks declined seasonally to a four and a half year low level, finishing 12.1% lower on a YOY basis. The Jun ’19 YOY decline in beef stocks was the fourth experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past 18 months on a percentage basis, trailing only the May ’19 decline. Overall, beef stocks reached a five year seasonal low level for the month of June. The MOM decline in beef stocks of 10.6 million pounds, or 2.6%, was greater than the ten year average May – Jun seasonal decline in stocks of 4.6 million pounds, or 0.9%.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the Sixth Time in Seven Months, Finish Down 5.8%
Jun ’19 U.S. frozen chicken stocks rebounded 0.2% from the 20 month low experienced throughout the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing down 5.8%. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 1.9 million pounds, or 0.2%, was a slight contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 2.3 million pounds, or 0.4%.
Overall, Jun ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 9.8% below the Sep ’18 record high levels. Individually, Jun ’19 pork and chicken stocks finished within 12% and 13% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished 31% below the highest monthly storage level on record.
Jun ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 2.4% below the record high June seasonal level experienced throughout 2018. Individually, Jun ’19 pork and chicken stocks finished within two percent and six percent of the record high June storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished 18% below record high historical seasonal levels.