Executive Summary

U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Jul ’18 U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month, finishing up 13.6%. Pork export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 26^th time in the past 27 months, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of July.
• Jul ’18 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased to a record seasonal high for the month of July, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 25^th consecutive month. Net beef & veal trade finished at a negative level for the third consecutive month, however, despite the record high seasonal export volumes.
• U.S. net broiler trade increased 4.2% YOY during Jul ’18 as export volumes increased to a four year seasonal high for the month of July.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Exports Increase to a Record Seasonal High, Net Trade Finishes up 13.6% YOY

According to USDA, Jul ’18 U.S. pork export volumes continued to decline seasonally from the Apr ’18 record high but remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing 8.9% to a record seasonal high for the month of July. Pork export volumes have finished higher on a YOY basis over 26 of the past 27 months through Jul ’18. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea, followed by shipments destined to Japan. U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Japan and Canada finished lower throughout the month. U.S. pork export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over three quarters of all pork export volumes during Jul ’18.

U.S. pork import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Jul ’18, finishing down 6.3%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in export volumes, resulted in Jul ’18 U.S. net pork trade finishing up 13.6% YOY. The monthly YOY increase in net pork trade was the tenth experienced in a row. ’16-’17 annual net pork trade finishing up 13.1% YOY, reaching a five year high, while ’17-’18 YTD net trade is up an additional 7.6% throughout the first ten months of the production season.

Recently announced tariffs on U.S. pork exports destined to China could impact export volumes going forward. China announced an additional 25% tariff on pork imports originating from within the U.S. during early Jul ’18. U.S. pork exports destined to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan declined 7.5% on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’18. China accounted for approximately seven percent of the total U.S. pork export volumes experienced throughout the 12 month period leading up the announcement of the additional pork tariffs.

Beef & Veal – Exports Increase to a Record Seasonal High However Net Trade Finishes Negative

Jul ’18 U.S. beef export volumes increased 16.8% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 25^th consecutive month and reaching a record seasonal high for the month of July. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea, followed by shipments destined to Japan and Mexico. U.S. beef export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan and Canada finished slightly lower throughout the month. U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for 90% of all beef & veal export volumes during Jul ’18.

Jul ’18 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing down 1.9%. Beef & veal import volumes continued to outpace beef & veal export volumes experienced throughout the month, however, resulting in net beef & veal trade finishing at a negative level for the third consecutive month. ’16-’17 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a negative level for the fourth consecutive year, despite export volumes reaching a record annual high, however ’17-’18 YTD net trade has remained at a positive level throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite Jul ’18 net trade finishing negative.

Broilers – Exports Increase to a Four Year Seasonal High, Net Trade Finishes up 4.2% YOY

Jul ’18 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 4.6% YOY, finishing at a four year seasonal high for the month of July. Export volumes destined to South Africa, Mexico and Vietnam increased most significant on an absolute basis throughout the month. YOY declines in broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Georgia, Cuba and the Philippines.

U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jul ’18, finishing up 25.2%. Broiler import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as Jul ’18 imports amounted to just 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY increase in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing up 4.2% YOY during Jul ’18. ’16-’17 annual net broiler trade finished up 5.1% YOY to a three year high, while ’17-’18 YTD net trade has increased an additional 2.9% throughout the first ten months of the production season.

Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, increasing by 106.1 million pounds, or 14.0%. The YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers was the second largest experienced throughout the past nine months.