U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Jul ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• Net pork trade finished 3.6% higher on a YOY basis during May ’16 as rising export volumes more than offset YOY increases in pork imports.
• Net beef & veal trade remained negative for the fifth consecutive month during May ’16, despite import volumes declining on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month.
• Net broiler trade remained lower on a YOY basis for the 11th time in the past 12 months during May ’16, finishing 2.9% below the previous year.
Additional Report Details
Pork – Net Trade Finishes Higher on a YOY Basis on Rising Export Volumes
According to USDA, May ’16 U.S. pork export volumes increased 3.3% MOM on a daily average basis and 4.9% YOY, finishing at a 13 month high. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by combined shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+117.3%), followed by shipments destined to Mexico (+10.6%) and Canada (+1.1%). The YOY increases in shipments to China, Mexico and Canada more than offset YOY declines in U.S. pork exports volumes destined to South Korea (-33.7%) and Japan (-17.4%). U.S. pork export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all pork export volumes during May ’16.
U.S. pork import volumes increased on YOY basis for the first time in three months during May ’16, finishing up 10.5%. The YOY increase in pork imports was not enough to offset the rise in export volumes, resulting in May ’16 U.S. net pork trade up 2.8% MOM on a daily average basis and 3.6% YOY to a new 13 month high. ’14-’15 annual net pork trade finished down 10.0% to a new five year low, however ’15-’16 net pork trade has rebounded by 4.8% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season, despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative for the Fifth Consecutive Month
According to USDA, May ’16 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 12.1% MOM on a daily average basis and 13.8% YOY, finishing at an 11 month high. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea (+60.6%), followed by shipments destined to Mexico (+39.5%), Japan (+29.4%) and Canada (+1.4%). Combined export volumes destined to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, however, finishing down 25.9%. U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during May ’16.
May ’16 U.S. beef & veal import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing down 9.9%. Despite the YOY declines, beef & veal import volumes continue to exceed export volumes, resulting in May ’16 net beef & veal trade remaining negative for the fifth consecutive month.
’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season as annual imports increased to a ten year high and beef & veal net trade declined to an eight year low.
Chicken –Net Broiler Trade Declines on a YOY Basis for the 11th Time in the Past 12 Months
May ’16 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 0.7% MOM on a daily average basis but remained lower on a YOY basis, finishing 2.5% below the previous year. Broiler export volumes have declined on a YOY basis over 11 of the past 12 months through May. Broiler export volumes destined to Canada (-11.5%) and Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-9.9%) declined on a YOY basis for the third and fourth consecutive months, respectively, however shipments to Mexico (+9.5%) increased on a YOY basis for the first time in three months.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 13th consecutive month during May ’16, finishing up 18.2%, however import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with May ’16 imports amounting to only 2.2% of export volumes. YOY declines in broiler export volumes, coupled with YOY increases in broiler import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 2.9% lower YOY. Net broiler trade declined 10.9% throughout the ’14-’15 production season and is down an additional 9.4% throughout the first two thirds of the ’15-’16 production season.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a CAGR of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower than export volumes on an absolute basis. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months during May ’16 as the decline in broiler net trade was more than offset by an increase in the net trade of beef and pork. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers had declined for 19 consecutive months from Apr ’14 – Oct ’15 and finished down 21.4% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season, despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative for the Fifth Consecutive Month
According to USDA, May ’16 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 12.1% MOM on a daily average basis and 13.8% YOY, finishing at an 11 month high. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea (+60.6%), followed by shipments destined to Mexico (+39.5%), Japan (+29.4%) and Canada (+1.4%). Combined export volumes destined to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, however, finishing down 25.9%. U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during May ’16.
May ’16 U.S. beef & veal import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing down 9.9%. Despite the YOY declines, beef & veal import volumes continue to exceed export volumes, resulting in May ’16 net beef & veal trade remaining negative for the fifth consecutive month.
’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season as annual imports increased to a ten year high and beef & veal net trade declined to an eight year low.
Chicken –Net Broiler Trade Declines on a YOY Basis for the 11th Time in the Past 12 Months
May ’16 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 0.7% MOM on a daily average basis but remained lower on a YOY basis, finishing 2.5% below the previous year. Broiler export volumes have declined on a YOY basis over 11 of the past 12 months through May. Broiler export volumes destined to Canada (-11.5%) and Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-9.9%) declined on a YOY basis for the third and fourth consecutive months, respectively, however shipments to Mexico (+9.5%) increased on a YOY basis for the first time in three months.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 13th consecutive month during May ’16, finishing up 18.2%, however import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with May ’16 imports amounting to only 2.2% of export volumes. YOY declines in broiler export volumes, coupled with YOY increases in broiler import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 2.9% lower YOY. Net broiler trade declined 10.9% throughout the ’14-’15 production season and is down an additional 9.4% throughout the first two thirds of the ’15-’16 production season.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a CAGR of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower than export volumes on an absolute basis. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months during May ’16 as the decline in broiler net trade was more than offset by an increase in the net trade of beef and pork. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers had declined for 19 consecutive months from Apr ’14 – Oct ’15 and finished down 21.4% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.