EU-28 Milk Production Update – Oct ’19
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
EU-28 milk production volumes have finished flat or higher on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Aug ’19. USDA expects EU-28 milk production volumes to continue to rebound throughout the second half of the year as the feed situation is expected to improve with the new crop. USDA is projecting a 0.9% YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes throughout the 2019 calendar year, greater than the 0.5% YOY increase in production volumes experienced throughout the first two thirds of the year.
Aug ’19 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Poland, followed by Ireland and France, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Sweden, followed by Italy.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+10.6%), followed by Luxembourg (+6.1%) and Latvia (+5.6%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Sweden (-4.2%), followed by Romania (-3.7%) and Croatia (-2.3%).
Eight of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Aug ’19 as production within the top ten milk producing member states increased by a weighted average of 0.9% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 22 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Aug ’19, finishing as the most widespread gains experienced throughout the past 15 months.
Jul ’19 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 4.3%. The YOY decline in beef & dairy cow slaughter was the second largest experienced throughout the past five and a half years on a percentage basis, trailing only the previous month’s decline. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant within the United Kingdom, followed by the Netherlands and France.
’18-’19 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive year, finishing up 0.5% to the highest figure on record, despite declining by 1.0% on a YOY basis over the second half of the production season. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.3% throughout the 2019 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent drought but noted additional culling rates are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.
- EU-28 milk production finished flat or higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during Aug ’19, increasing 0.9% to a record high seasonal level.
- Aug ’19 YOY increases in milk production were led by Poland, followed by Ireland and France. Overall, 22 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month, finishing as the most widespread gains experienced throughout the past 15 months.
- EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months during Jul ’19 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 4.3%.
EU-28 milk production volumes have finished flat or higher on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Aug ’19. USDA expects EU-28 milk production volumes to continue to rebound throughout the second half of the year as the feed situation is expected to improve with the new crop. USDA is projecting a 0.9% YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes throughout the 2019 calendar year, greater than the 0.5% YOY increase in production volumes experienced throughout the first two thirds of the year.
Aug ’19 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Poland, followed by Ireland and France, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Sweden, followed by Italy.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+10.6%), followed by Luxembourg (+6.1%) and Latvia (+5.6%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Sweden (-4.2%), followed by Romania (-3.7%) and Croatia (-2.3%).
Eight of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Aug ’19 as production within the top ten milk producing member states increased by a weighted average of 0.9% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 22 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Aug ’19, finishing as the most widespread gains experienced throughout the past 15 months.
Jul ’19 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 4.3%. The YOY decline in beef & dairy cow slaughter was the second largest experienced throughout the past five and a half years on a percentage basis, trailing only the previous month’s decline. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant within the United Kingdom, followed by the Netherlands and France.
’18-’19 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive year, finishing up 0.5% to the highest figure on record, despite declining by 1.0% on a YOY basis over the second half of the production season. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.3% throughout the 2019 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent drought but noted additional culling rates are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.